shadow stats australia

IMPORTANT: Commentary postings are advised directly to Subscribers by coincident e-mail, along with a direct link to the posted Commentary and any needed login detail. The response to those writings (the Primer Series available at the top-center of this page) was so strong that we started ShadowStats.com (Shadow Government Statistics) in 2004. A new analysis will follow with preliminary April 2023 numbers late this coming week. Measured against its Pre-Pandemic level, 4q2022 Real GDP had gained 5.03% [previously 5.06% and 5.11%]. Underlying Fundamentals Remain Extremely Strong for Gold and Silver, and Weak for the U.S. Dollar and Stocks, Despite Central Bank or Other Systemic Machinations to the Contrary, January 2021 Manufacturing Declined Year-to-Year for the 19th Consecutive Month, Still in the Downturn Induced by the FOMC 15 Months Before the Pandemic Collapse (2) April 27th (Bureau of Economic Analysis), also see Note 17. Shadowstats debunked. CPI-adjusted, Real Retail Sales declined by 1.04% (-1.04%) month-to-month in March 2023, down by 1.95% (-1.95%) year-to-year, with First-Quarter 2023 Real Retail Sales declining 0.30% (-0.30%) year-to-year, down for the fourth time in the last five quarters, otherwise gyrating with extreme volatility in recent monthly automobile sales. Despite political hype to the contrary, such is helping to accelerate the pace of domestic Inflation. (6) April 24th (Census Bureau). According to a new study published by the Institute for Applied Economic Research at the University of Tbingen in Germany (IAW), the Greek shadow economy is estimated to average 21.5 percent of . ARCHIVES - VIEWING EARLIER COMMENTARIES. That revised February inflation of 16.1% was much higher than the year-to-year nominal growth of 5.3% in parallel February Construction Spending, resulting in an unrevised, inflation adjusted, real year-to-year decline of 9.5% (-9.5%) in February 2023 [See extended comments in later Note (16)]. Momentum of Fourth-Quarter Data Suggests a First-Quarter 2021 GDP Contraction, As the Pandemic and Political Tumult Take on Negative New Dimensions Negative Implications Here for the July 29th GDP Benchmarking U.S. Dollar Collapse Accelerates April 2023 Annual Benchmark Revisions lowered historical levels and growth estimates for inflation-adjusted Real Retail Sales back to January 2021, likely foreshadowing some downside revisions to headline GDP in its later 2023 benchmarking. The CPI-U (consumer price index) is the broadest measure of consumer price inflation for goods and services published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). 2021 Social Security Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) Could Spike to a 40-Year High, Based on Potential Third-Quarter 2021 CPI-W Astounding Hyperinflation Call From John Williams, Shadowstats Fed Chair Powell Noted That Surging Money Supply No Longer Boosts the Economy ET]. Accordingly, ongoing massive Fiscal and Monetary Stimuli will be needed, and likely will expand into 2024/2025, irrespective of the FOMCs pronounced tightening. As demonstrated in recent decades, FOMC stimulus likely will remain in play, as targeted by the FOMC, primarily, in order to prevent a collapse in the Banking System, or to magnify liquidity in the Banking System, which owns and controls the Federal Reserve, not to stimulate the Broad Economy, per se. Australia CPI: Economists predict rate increases from mid-2022 after Data source: Quarterly Informal Economy Survey (QIES) by World Economics, London. (18) March 21st to 22nd (FOMC). Adjusted for seasonal factors, the monthly decline was 3.8% (-3.8%), with the year-to-year drop at 3.6% (-3.6%). A similar pattern is likely with the Census Bureaus May 1st release of March 2023 nominal Construction Spending, given the activity patterns and related needed inflation-adjustments already in play. Others: Consumer Liquidity, Depression, Money Supply. 1461. The Shadow TUAS can carry payloads up to 27kg (60lb) including sensors and electronic warfare systems. First-Quarter 2021 GDP Remains at Risk of Relapsing into Quarterly Contraction Where monthly jobs growth in the key Manufacturing, Retail Sales and Construction Sectors has turned flat-to-minus, the Leisure and Hospitality Sector showed continued strong, albeit slowing monthly growth, still holding shy by more than 2% (-2%) of ever recovering its pre-Pandemic level of activity. Yet hard Money Supply numbers through the deliberately slow release of the March 2023 detail, show minimal impact, presently still expanding in the most-liquid, inflation-driving Basic M1 (Currency and Demand Deposits). We thank Cass Information Systems for sharing their survey information. A prospering shadow economy makes official statistics (on unemployment, official labor force, income, consumption) unreliable. Ukraine Latest: War Casts Shadow Over Votes in Bulgaria, Finland. ET). Despite Talk of Tightening in 2022 or 2023, FOMC Is Easing Anew in Its Latest Actions, Benchmarked Industrial Production Revised Sharply Lower; Both Manufacturing and Mining Were Hit Hard That said, the initial estimate of the theoretical GDP-equivalent 4q2022 Gross Domestic Income (GDI) showed an annualized quarterly contraction of 1.14% (-1.14%), versus an annualized gain of 3.76% in 3q2022, with the more traditional Gross National Product (GNP) gaining at an initial annualized 2.38% in 4q2022 GDP, versus 2.44% in 3q2022. Deepening Deficits in Fourth-Quarter and Annual 2020 Real Net-Exports (GDP) and the Related Real Merchandise Trade Deficit Were the Worst Ever in Modern U.S. He received an A.B. He believes the economy has collapsed, based upon his calculations on economic. Underlying headlines of better-quality U.S. economic numbers, reviewed here in Part II [see Points (1) to (18)], suggest that the United States has been in Recession since First-Quarter 2022, allowing for the political games played with the Strategic Petroleum Reserve depletion, which otherwise also accounted for the headline boost in Second-Half 2022 (Third- and Fourth-Quarter 2022) GDP growth. Please note that the ShadowStats Alternate Unemployment Data and Graphs have been updated for March 2023 on the ALTERNATE DATA TAB (see the above links ribbon). At present, full economic recovery is not likely until well into 2024 or after. Signals of renewed, faltering activity increasingly have taken on the mantle of a new Recession. Please click on a chart or link to view details. -- In contrast, the ShadowStats Corrected Alternate-GDP estimate, adjusted for the continual understatement of headline GDP Inflation, and the corresponding continual overstatement of growth in the Real GDP, showed a corrected 1q2023 real annualized quarterly contraction of 0.98% (-0.98%), against a 0.50% 4q2022 gain, with an annual contraction of 0.49% (-0.49%) in 1q2023, against an annual drop of 1.16% (-1.16%) in 4q2022. The Shadow Economy - Reserve Bank of Australia Unlike the Money Supply at present, even before the onset of Tapering and Balance Sheet Reduction, the Monetary Base was and is not close to record annual growth levels, previously seen during the 2007-2008 Banking System Collapse of the Great Recession, which at the time exploded Reserve Balances (up 5,000 percent year-to-year, but never reversed much in parallel in a post-Crisis movement). FOMC Has Trouble Forecasting Inflation One Quarter Ahead, Let Alone Two Years Ahead Search Text. Separately, extended full coverage and graphs of both the Money Supply and Monetary Base and their components follows in the pending Subscriber-only Daily Update E-mail. Go to https://www.cassinfo.com/freight-audit-payment/cass-transportation-indexes/march-2023 for full detail. The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Yet, Fourth-Quarter 2020 New-Home Sales Contracted, as Did Real Retail Sales, Suggestive of Consumers Facing Intensifying Pandemic and Liquidity Issues That said, expanded Federal Government Deficit Spending continues, currently at the Debt Ceiling. in Economics, cum laude, from Dartmouth College in 1971, and was awarded a M.B.A. from Dartmouth's Amos Tuck School of Business Administration in 1972, where he was named an Edward Tuck Scholar. Current employment/ economic conditions will be assessed and reviewed shortly in the pending No. 1459, again, with updated and expanded details pending in the Subscriber-only e-mails and No. Please note with the ALTERNATE DATA Tab, that the Money Supply annual growth rates after February 2021 instead are against the February 2020 Pre-Pandemic Level not year-to-year (although both measures are plotted in the subscriber-only graphs). While the headline number usually is the seasonally-adjusted month-to-month change, the formal CPI is reported on a not-seasonally-adjusted basis, with annual inflation measured in terms . All previous Commentaries are available in, or accessible from, the upper left-hand column of this www.shadowstats.com Home Page. Effectively fully surveyed, Permits were down by a deepening, seasonally adjusted year-to-year drop of 24.8% (-24.8%) in March 2023, against a revised, narrowed 16.5% (-16.5%) [previously a 17.9% (-17.9%) February decline]. That said, the aggregate series quarterly sales, have been in annual decline for each of the last seven quarters, up through the current 1q2023, in an otherwise deepening housing recession. That said, more commonly, sharp annual declines in recent months have tended to be statistically significant, but not the month-to-month changes. FOR SUBSCRIBERS Beyond the pending monthly Commentary, graphs covering the latest numbers and most other economic, inflation and monetary detail, are available to you by e-mail, as part of your existing, regular subscription. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 4-3/4 to 5 percent. This is because he states that these numbers have been manipulated over the past 25 years for nefarious political reasons. (8) April 18th, (Census Bureau). The aggregate Real Annual Merchandise Trade Deficit for 2022 was unrevised at -1,320.2 Billion Chained (2012) Dollars, again, its worst showing in history. Per the NAR Press Release, Existing-home sales retreated 2.4% in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.44 million. -- Headline Fourth-Quarter 2022 GDP inflation (Implicit Price Deflator [IPD}) came in at a revised third estimate of an annualized pace of 3.92% (previously 3.93% and 3.51%), against an unrevised 4.36% in 3q2022, and up by an unrevised year-to-year 6.41% (initially 6.30%), versus an unrevised 7.15% in Third-Quarter 2022, which remained at a 42-year high, outside of the recent inflation spike. Gasoline prices having been in an upswing since January 2023, gaining 11.7% since December 2022, as of the just-released April 2023 monthly average [EIA].

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